Who doesn't love a good prediction?
As election day looms, we thought it would be appropriate to lock in guesses to how we think next Tuesday will unfold. To effectuate this project, the Flappr Academy of Polling & Prognostication (F.A.P.P.) assembled some of the most impressive minds in our current political discourse.
We've all bore witness to the increase in crime, border crossings and the disgraceful exit from Afghanistan. We've seen people suffer from increased prices on well . . . everything. It feels like that SHOULD mean something, but maybe it doesn't.
We've all witnessed Joe Biden avoid answering questions, have moments where he can't remember where he is, why he's there and what office he occupies. According to the Real Clear Politics average, Biden's approval rating stands at a very impressive -10.7 as of the publishing this blog. People seem pissed, but are they pissed enough to give strip Biden of his ability to return the House and/or Senate to the GOP? If so, Biden's first term is effectively over and he will spend the next two years sniffing kids in Delaware.
The good news is that we're very close to finding out!
So without further ado, here is how the F.A.P.P predicts the midterms will shake out.
Enjoy, go vote and God Bless America.
I want to believe that the GOP takes back the Senate and there are reasons to believe that they will. In fact, RealClearPolitics currently predicts that Mitch McConnell will become Majority Leader again in 2023 with a six seat majority.
Perhaps I'm just protecting myself from disappointment, but I think the Senate ends up 50-50 again and Chuck Schumer retains control. I'm certainly not confident in this prediction (if this was a football bet, it would be Dems -3 at home), but my reservations stem from one thing - I think the GOP nominated some clunkers in these races (in the Senate and for Governor) and I think Cocaine Mitch let his ego get in the way of dumping cash in some races that look within reach.
The deciding seat will be Pennsylvania. I think John Fetterman will end up winning his race, despite being more or less brain damaged. Not necessarily because Oz is a TERRIBLE candidate (he's merely mediocre), but because the media worked to hide the extent of Fetterman's condition from the public. By the time Fetterman took the stage to debate Oz on October 25th, over 630,000 Pennsylvanians had already voted (about 12.5% of the electorate, based on 2018 turnout) and 463,000 of them for the man who can barely speak.
For months, Fetterman has held campaign events that were covered by the media and we didn't see many instances where reporters posted video of him speaking. We know why.
With so many early votes already cast and GOP nominee for Governor, Doug Mastriano, trailing so far behind his opponent, I think Oz will end up losing a tight race and the Senate will remain split.
I hope I'm wrong.
Control of Senate Prediction (Total = 100)
GOP 50
DEM 50
Winner of PA SEN John Fetterman
Winner of AZ SEN Blake Masters (UPSET!)
Winner of GA SEN Raphael Warnock
Winner of NV SEN Catherine Cortez Masto
Winner of WI SEN Ron Johnson
I'm more bullish on the GOP's chances to retake the house. I'm about 95% confident this happens. I hope they choose someone else other than feckless Kevin McCarthy to be Speaker of the House. They won't. I hope they have a plan for once they take back the House. They probably don't. I hope they make good choices for committee chairs and they use their power to investigate things that need answering (origins of the VYRUS and what, if any, our involvement (Fauci) might have been). Not confident they will.
I hope I'm wrong.
Control of House Prediction (Total = 435)
GOP 230
DEM 205
Underdog House victory:
Illinois 17th District Esther Joy King - takes over former DCCC Chair Cheri Bustos' seat.
For the purposes of this blog, we're assuming wins for DeSantis and Kemp. I think both are safe bets. Ron DeSantis is the best political figure and governor and communicator in America right now. Bar none. He will win, but Florida is also a weird state that always has close elections. DeSantis will win, but by less than the polls currently suggest (Current RCP Avg +11.2).
Kemp has been dogged by MAGA die-hards, but has emerged as a formidable force on the national stage. Kemp has a pretty impressive record both as a leader during COVID and with passing Jim Crow 2.0. If Trump-endorsed Herschel Walker ends up beating Warnock, it will be because Trump-hated Brian Kemp drags him across the finish line and that will be endlessly hilarious. Kemp will win, but by less than the polls currently suggest (Current RCP Avg +6.7).
I think Kari Lake is going to end up winning in Arizona and will bring Blake Masters with her.
In the Midwest, I think we see a shocker in Michigan, where noted MILF, Tudor Dixon, take down Gretchen Whitmer. This would be a fairly huge upset and I'm probably using my,,, uhh,,, heart more than my brain on this one. Still, I don't think people realize how much shit some of these people put us through during the pandemic. Whitmer didn't start reopening schools until 2021. A fair amount didn't reopen until later that fall. Meanwhile, in April 2021, Whitmer shit on people who traveled for Spring Break, while also taking a trip to Florida herself. I think people underestimate the lasting frustration some of this misery caused.
The Midwest remembers. So Whitmer in Michigan and Evers in Wisconsin will fall.
Governors
DeSantis Win in FL O/U 7% Under
Kemp Win in GA O/U 7% Under
Winner of Michigan Gov Tudor Dixon
Winner of Arizona Gov Kari Lake
Winner of PA Gov Josh Shapiro
Winner of WI Gov Tim Michels
Control of Senate Prediction (Total = 100)
GOP 51
DEM 49
Winner of PA SEN OZ
Winner of AZ SEN Kelly
Winner of GA SEN Warnock
Winner of NV SEN Laxalt
Winner of WI SEN Johnson
Control of House Prediction (Total = 435)
GOP 226
DEM 209
Underdog House victory:
New York 17th Lawler
Governors
DeSantis Win in FL O/U 7% Over
Kemp Win in GA O/U 7% Under
Winner of Michigan Gov Big Grech
Winner of Arizona Gov Lake
Winner of PA Gov Shapiro
Winner of WI Gov Tossup
Control of Senate Prediction (Total = 100)
GOP: >
DEM: <
Winner of PA SEN: The Wizard of Oz
Winner of AZ SEN: The Karen-y looking one
Winner of GA SEN: Stacey Abrams
Winner of NV SEN: I literally forget this is a state sometimes.
Winner of MI SEN: They have Senators?
Control of House Prediction (Total = 435)
GOP: >
DEM: <
Underdog house victory: ?????????
Governors
DeSantis Win in FL O/U 7%: If DeSantis loses, I'll send Bobs. (Editor's Note: Hmm. . worth it?)
Kemp Win in GA O/U 7%: Also Stacey Abrams
Winner of Michigan Gov: The Kidnapping Plot
Winner of Arizona Gov: Or was this the battle of Karens?
Winner of PA Gov: Ben Shapiro
Winner of WI Gov: Cheese
Control of Senate Predictions (Total = 100)
GOP: 53
DEM: 47
Winner of PA Senate Race: Mehmet Oz
Winner of AZ Senate Race: Blake Masters
Winner of GA Senate Race: Herschel Walker
Winner of NV Senate Race: Adam Laxalt
Winner of WI Senate Race: Ron Johnson
Control of House Predictions (Total = 435)
Who Controls House and By How Much (Total = 435)
GOP: 245
DEM: 190
Underdog House Victory: Scott Baugh (CA–47)
Gubernatorial Predictions:
DeSantis Win in FL Over/Under 7%: Over
Kemp Win in GA Over/Under 7%: Over
Winner of MI Governor's Race: Tudor Dixon
Winner of AZ Governor's Race: Kari Lake
Winner of PA Governor's Race: Doug Mastriano
Winner of WI Governor's Race: Tim Michels
Control of Senate Prediction (Total = 100)
GOP 53
DEM 47
Winner of PA SEN: Oz
Winner of AZ SEN: Masters
Winner of GA SEN: Walker
Winner of NV SEN: Laxalt
Winner of WI SEN: Johsnon
Control of House Prediction (Total = 435)
GOP: 232
DEM: 203
Underdog house victory: Pallotta NJ 05
Governors
DeSantis Win in FL: 54/46 %
Kemp Win in GA: 51/48 %
Winner of Michigan Gov: Tudor
Winner of Arizona Gov: Lake
Winner of PA Gov: Mastriano
Winner of WI Gov: Tony Evers
Control of Senate Prediction (Total = 100)
GOP 53
DEM 47
Winner of PA SEN: Oz
Winner of AZ SEN: Kelly
Winner of GA SEN: Walker
Winner of NV SEN: Laxalt
Winner of WI SEN: Johnson
Control of House Prediction (Total = 435)
GOP: 222
DEM: 213
Underdog house victory: I hope Esther Joy King beats the gay weatherman from the Quad Cities.
Governors
DeSantis Win in FL O/U 7%: Over
Kemp Win in GA O/U 7%: Under
Winner of Michigan Gov: Dixon
Winner of Arizona Gov: Lake
Winner of PA Gov: Shapiro
Winner of WI Gov: Michels
Control of Senate Prediction (Total = 100)
GOP: Winner
DEM: ?
Winner of PA SEN: Fetterman
Winner of AZ SEN: Masters
Winner of GA SEN: Walker
Winner of NV SEN: Laxalt
Winner of WI SEN: Johnson
Control of House Prediction (Total = 435)
GOP 243
DEM 192
Underdog house victory: ?
Governors
DeSantis Win in FL O/U 7%: Over
Kemp Win in GA O/U 7%: Under (Abrams comes in heavy in Fulton county)
Winner of Michigan Gov: Dixon
Winner of Arizona Gov: Lake
Winner of PA Gov: Shapiro
Winner of WI Gov: Michels
Control of Senate Prediction (Total = 100)
GOP: 54
DEM: 46
Winner of PA SEN: Oz
Winner of AZ SEN: Masters
Winner of GA SEN: Walker
Winner of NV SEN: Laxalt
Winner of WI SEN: Johnson
Control of House Prediction (Total = 435)
GOP: 225
DEM: 210
Underdog house victory: NY-18
Governors
DeSantis Win in FL O/U 7%: Over
Kemp Win in GA O/U 7%: Over
Winner of Michigan Gov: Dixon
Winner of Arizona Gov: Lake
Winner of PA Gov: Shapiro
Winner of WI Gov: Michels
Winner of NY Gov: ZELDIN (😉)
Control of Senate Prediction (Total = 100)
Democrats - Republican Senators haven't done anywhere near enough good to convince the public to add more of them to the feckless pricks we have in office now.
Winner of PA SEN: Fetterman
Winner of AZ SEN: Astroman wins again - Masters might have the juice, but he's too young
Winner of GA SEN: Warnock the Warlock
Winner of NV SEN: Cortez Masto - I've heard literally nothing about this race
Winner of WI SEN: Ron Johnson, barely.
Control of House Prediction (Total = 435)
GOP: Domination, 225
DEM: 210
Underdog House Victory: Calvin Wimbish FL-10
Governors
DeSantis Win in FL O/U 7%: He's done a good job and they know it (Editor's Note: WTF? this isn't the question)
Kemp Win in GA O/U 7%: Abrams - Her time has come( Editor's Note: WTF? this isn't the question)
Winner of Michigan Gov: Whitmer
Winner of Arizona Gov: Lake, MAYBE
Winner of PA Gov: Shapiro - Trust no yankee to make the right choice
Winner of WI Gov: Evers - Trust no yankee to make the right choice
Winner of NY Gov: Hochul - The people of New York get what they deserve for allowing themselves to be ruled by apartment dwellers and degenerates
Control of Senate Prediction (Total = 100)
GOP: 52
DEM: 48
Winner of PA SEN: Oz
Winner of AZ SEN: Masters
Winner of GA SEN: Warnock
Winner of NV SEN: Laxalt
Winner of WI SEN: Johnson
Control of House Prediction (Total = 435)
GOP: 245
DEM: 190
Underdog house victory: don’t know districts well enough but will say Zeldin win NY Gov
Governors
DeSantis Win in FL O/U 7%: Over
Kemp Win in GA O/U 7%: Under
Winner of Michigan Gov: Whitmer
Winner of Arizona Gov: Lake
Winner of PA Gov: Shapiro
Winner of WI Gov: Michels
Control of Senate Prediction (Total = 100)
GOP: 51
DEM: 49
Winner of PA SEN: Fetterman
Winner of AZ SEN: Kelly
Winner of GA SEN: Walker
Winner of NV SEN: Laxalt
Winner of WI SEN: Johnson
Control of House Prediction (Total = 435)
GOP: 230
DEM: 205
Underdog house victory: N/A
Governors
DeSantis Win in FL O/U 7%: Over
Kemp Win in GA O/U 7%: Under
Winner of Michigan Gov: Whitmer
Winner of Arizona Gov: Lake
Winner of PA Gov: Shapiro
Winner of WI Gov: Evers
Control of Senate Prediction (Total = 100)
GOP 53
DEM 47
Winner of PA SEN: Oz
Winner of AZ SEN: Masters
Winner of GA SEN: Walker
Winner of NV SEN: Laxalt
Winner of WI SEN: Johnson
Control of House Prediction (Total = 435)
GOP - 226
DEM - 209
Underdog house victory: Mike Lawler over Maloney (NY-17)
Governors
DeSantis Win in FL O/U 7% - DeSantis
Kemp Win in GA O/U 7% - Kemp
Winner of Michigan Gov: Whitmer
Winner of Arizona Gov: Lake
Winner of PA Gov: Shapiro
Winner of WI Gov: Michels
Prediction: The End of Democracy.