This Election is.... a Little Strange
Most voters vote straight ticket. They just do. You’re a Republican or you’re a Democrat or you’re an independent that leans one way and that’s just the way you vote. Most people don’t have the time or inclination to sit down, study each race, investigate what each candidate stands for, and pick the candidate that aligns with their worldview. That’s just not realistic. Of course – this election is broke AF so maybe there’s no rule to use. I was looking at Senate race totals and comparing them to the candidates’ totals and this is a very strange election. Let’s take a look.
Peters (D) and James (R) are in a tight race and James has said he won’t concede. Michigan went red in 2016 and I really expected it to do the same this year. The early vote just didn’t seem to be anywhere near the level necessary for a Biden win. Biden currently leads Trump with 147,897 votes. Assuming that a vote for Biden would be a vote for Peters the numbers are… a little off. 72,129 people voted for Biden that didn’t vote for Peters. Was that a ballot with only Biden on it and no downstream votes? Was that the minority vote voting for Biden but switching to James? I don’t think so. There’s no minority bump there as James is losing. When you compare the numbers of Trump votes to James votes that difference is only 10,289. Did 70,000 people just vote Biden and nothing else? What’s going on here?
Ossoff (D) looks likely to lose to Perdue (R) but it’s another state that looks like it was leaning blue after going red in 2016. Currently, Biden leads Trump by about 8000 votes although the state is going to do a recount. That recount will be slowed by the Florida/Georgia game which I’m going to watch as soon as I finish this damn piece up. (Damn my natural inclination to be curious about data.) How are the numbers in Georgia? There were 99,443 more votes for Biden that did not go to Ossoff. For Trump? We actually have to switch it here. 856 more people voted for Perdue than voted for Trump. I mean – at this point that just seems like numbers not jibing correctly. It seems anyone that voted Trump also voted for Perdue. But 100,000 more people voted for Biden that didn’t vote for the Democrat candidate? I’m sorry – that seems strange to me.
Minnesota was my sleeper state to switch red. The Iron Range went red and I said “Well, maybe the rest of the state will, too? I have no idea.” I still put them blue on my final map. The number that voted for Biden that didn’t vote for the Senate candidate Smith (D) – 149,921. To be fair, 86,793 voted for Trump that didn’t vote for the Republican candidate. They’re large numbers for both. Although I sort of expected a jump in numbers for Trump there because it’s still Minnesota. They might be Team Trump. That does not in any way mean they are Team Republican.
So what are we seeing? At this point, I would argue these are actually voters that don’t normally vote turning out to cast a vote for Biden and then going back home. I understood the phenomenon with Obama in 2008. He crushed the vote and would lead by large margins over the Senate Democrat candidate because people that didn’t normally vote came out in droves, voted for him and only him, and went home. The script is flipped this time because it’s people that are brainwashed by the media and think Trump is a dictator and a threat to the country because that’s what they’ve been told. They believe it. And they’re voting accordingly. They don’t like Biden but they’re scared of Trump.
Look – no one knows what’s happening. Let’s wait until we get some audits of the voter rolls. Let’s see if SCOTUS rules that votes that arrived after election day aren’t valid because the executive branch is not allowed to change election rules when it says in the constitution that the legislature is expressly the branch to set election rules. Keep your powder dry, people. And most of all – no matter what happens – let’s start looking to 2022 and 2024. We’re in good position in the House and the Senate. We’ve got some great populist candidates. We just had the most black and hispanic votes for a Republican candidate since 1960. Let’s keep moving forward with the new Republican mojo and dump the establishment. We’ve got this.