A Look Inside the Early Voting Numbers

My fellow Flappr contributors and I are all making are electoral maps to pick what way the states will lead. I figured this was a great time to dig into the early vote totals. According to the early vote totals that I’ve been following each day I think Trump is on track to win the presidency again. We know that the Democrats are terrified of in-person voting and have been told repeatedly to vote by mail. We know Republicans are overwhelming going to in-person vote due to concerns about mail in voting and fraud. We should be seeing large leads in Democrat turnouts right now and that’s mostly just not happening. If most Democrats have already cast their votes then we should see a huge number of Republican votes on election day. I’m also assuming there will be some registered Democrats voting Republican. #WalkAway is a real phenomenon. There are lots of Democrats that have become fed up with the hard left turn the party is taking. The opposite is not happening in the Republican party.

If those theories are wrong then so are these predictions. Turnout has been huge this year with a lot more people voting than in 2016 so enthusiasm is high. These numbers are from TargetSmart which is a Democratic political data and data services firm. Also, these numbers are from “modeled party” numbers. What’s that? It includes the unaffiliated voters and tries to include those numbers in each party’s totals based on how they’ve voted in the past. Let’s take a quick look at the battleground state numbers and see what they look like.


The Democrats lead by 1 point. If Republicans come out en masse next Tuesday this state is safe red.


Democrats have a 10 point lead. Colorado is likely blue.


Democrats have a 2 point lead. Florida is safe red. If you just look at early in-person voting (excluding mail-in votes) Dade county is red. That’s huge!


Democrats have a 4 point lead. That can be overcome on election day. Michigan is likely red.


Democrats have a 16 point lead so this state will most likely go blue. However, this would be a state that I wouldn’t be shocked to see flip. I think the Iron Range has flipped red even though they are all registered Democrats. We saw six mayors (all Democrats) endorse Trump this year.


The Democrats lead by 1 point. I think this state is safe red.

New Mexico

This one is lean blue as Democrats have a 15 point lead. It could flip Tuesday but I’m not going to call it for Trump.


The Democrats lead here by 35 points. This should be all over but I’m going to say this state will tilt red. Why? Rioting and Biden’s comment at the debate about ending fracking. In Philly and the Philly suburbs Trump polled at 25% recently. Sounds bad, right? But he won Pennsylvania in 2016 with only 16% in Philly. Trump voters are coming out huge next week and will swing that 35 point lead. It’s going to be epic.


Democrats lead by 3 points. Wisconsin is lean red.

One last point on two other states – Georgia and Texas are safe red. These aren’t battleground states no matter how badly people are wishcasting on this subject. I think the data is showing most of the battleground states are going red. The center of the country is safe red. And I think Trump is safely on his way to re-election.